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Was it Real Estate Stats Day?

By Doug Francis

As I read Corey Hart’s blog post about Phoenix real estate values and the wacky statistical report posted on Trulia, I started to hear news reports just released about the Washington DC regional real estate market.

To dig a little deeper, I looked at a subscription service called RBI which is produced by a division of MRIS. They generate better stats because they have more quality control of their data. Their QC finds the garbage stats, fixes ’em, so their results are accurate. I have seen a very active market in McLean and Oakton, and my associates in Silver Spring and College Park tell me their market has been hot too.

The Vienna real estate market has been busy recently so I thought that I would use RBI to drill down on one zip code, 22182, and see what the stats revealed. I do this realtor thing full time… but these numbers surprised me.

A 10.25% price gain in one year

Vienna 22182 Sold Summary

Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC - 22182

Comparing year-on-year numbers is always interesting, but to have increases that leap as much as these can cause heart palpitations if you are a future home buyer looking for a home in this zip code. The number of sales is up 100%, and the average sold price is up 10%. Wow!

It is important to note that, in this zip code, any new home that was built in the past two years has sold above $1.2 million. Many of those homes replaced an older home so the net inventory of homes has remained close to the same. It is this limited supply, continued job growth in the local economy, and the fact interest rates are about 1% lower that has helped fuel prices of the existing inventory.

The following chart looks at the last two years, and note that the trend of “sold’ homes rises as it hits May and June. Expect to see the same trend this May and June.

The chart above will change every month as RBI publishes their data so plan to revisit this page in early June or July.

Although I can generate charts for any zip code to get that extra local read on real estate activity, I clearly remember my statistics professor at Boston University showing us many ways to interpret statistics. Yes, all of those economists will use them to draw conclusions to validate their points. What I see here is a real estate market under considerable inventory pressure in a very desirable place to live. The problem: it’s expensive to buy a home in the Washington DC area!

Do you want really geeky real estate statistics?

If you are really interested in geeky real estate analysis, forget referencing Trulia or Zillow and read reports from George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis where the PhD’s publish their data.

 

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Filed Under: Blog, Home Buyer Tips Tagged With: real estate, Vienna Virginia

About Doug Francis

A seasoned Realtor specializing in unique and new homes around Vienna, Virginia, Doug has seen consumer behavior, negotiations and communication styles change. At his original brokerage, he was the first agent to add an email address. Imagine! Outside real estate, he plays tennis, is a Washington Capitals fan, spends time with Skipper (his dog), and enjoys the restaurant scene in the DCA. He's a Boston University graduate who feels morning coffee is non-negotiable.

Vienna real estate agent Doug Francis

When we bought our house in Vienna, we were thinking about raising the kids, building an addition, and knowing the neighbors. Today, home buyers are attracted to Vienna because of the sense of community, walkability, and small town lifestyle.

So, what’s next after your 25 years? It’s a conversation many of my clients are having with me as they plan to move to the beach, travel, or get closer to grandkids. Helping them see their future, sell their current home, and move ahead with their updated plan has been an interesting new chapter.

My background: I am an active licensed agent in Virginia, have negotiated hundreds of sales contracts, work at TTR Sotheby’s International Realty in McLean, and still sell homes in all price ranges. I donate to the Town of Vienna tree replacement fund, participate in a neighborhood citizens association, and try my best to stay in shape.

Let’s discuss your moving plans: Email doug@dougfrancis.com or call me at (703) 304-6827 .  Cheers!

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About Doug Francis

I am a Realtor with TTR Sotheby's International Realty® just outside Washington D.C. in Northern Virginia. I'm licensed in Virginia with a focus on Vienna, VA real estate since 1991.

That deep knowledge is valuable, especially in today's fast-paced market where advice is critical. Although many of my clients are personally referred, I am available to help you too and am accepting new clients right now.

Feel free to contact me at 703-304-6827 or email me at doug@dougfrancis.com anytime!

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