Although many people are “chartists” reading the tea leaves of the local real estate market from the raw data that gets pumped out by MRIS on the Northern Virginia real estate market, I get my temperature reading from a more organic source.
Those are the people who are in the dirt, actual real estate buyers and sellers.
Hey, these people are organic
Going only on my “hunch”, I looked into the real MRIS Northern Virginia real estate data and recognized that a subtle shift had occurred! Yes, I confirm my hunch.
Let’s look at Fairfax County real estate trends first
Do you see that subtle shift in the June numbers in Fairfax County? The number of “active listings” slopes up as the number of “pendings” takes a dip. I can’t find that happening in the last two years worth of data.
I think that my professor back at Boston University called it an inflection point (as will, one day in the future, the statisticians at Yale when they finally see this blog post) in my very boring statistics class.
Let’s look at Arlington County real estate too
The same trend hits the Arlington County real estate market too!
My read is that we hit a very hot summer season starting in June. If you drive around on Saturday or Sunday, it is apparent that lots of folks have left town and gone to the beach. But know that there are plenty of home buyers out there and that they are carefully looking through the available listing and aren’t feeling the pressure that they did in March.
You will have to wait until September 2011 to see if I am right, but late July and early August are the time to make your best Northern Virginia real estate deals.