When I took “Statistics” at Boston University, I had a professor who really couldn’t speak English very well. Lectures were frustrating, but I really remember one key concept from that class.
Essentially, statistics are always subject to an individuals interpretation depending on what they/you hope to demonstrate to make a point. There can be many variations as to what they signal.
Like: Statistics show that more people select vanilla ice cream over strawberry! But only when scooping from a container of Neopolitan ice cream at winter birthday parties in Back Bay.
Blah, blah… basically nonsense if you want.
So, as I was looking at the Arlington and Fairfax real estate sales statistics generated by RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), I noticed that Closed Sales were down 7.82% in March over last year in Fairfax. And Arlington County Closed Sales were down 20.36% in March compared to last year.
What gives?
Interest rates maybe? I think it may be due to the rapid price appreciation that the region experienced over the past 16 months. And there were fewer homes for sale during our cold and wet winter. Or, it could mean that RBI is missing some of the sales that never went into the MRIS database. Hmmm…
Analysis
I think that the Northern Virginia real estate market has entered into a new, more balanced phase this spring. There are significantly more homes hitting the market for sale and real estate buyers are recognizing that trend. Take a look at the interactive chart below (changes monthly) that shows a significant uptick in new listings. Like the previous two years, this is a classic “shoulder” building in the chart which will likely peak in early July when Washingtonians typically go on summer hiatus.
A snapshot of the Vienna real estate market in 22182:
Is it a buyer’s market? No, not really but it does give buyers a little more wiggle room.
In the past, my buyer clients have been able to finally get a house or simply negotiate on one.
This is also a point in time when homes priced over $1.2 million see a split from the lower priced market, especially in Fairfax real estate circles. That market traditionally endure longer days-on-market trends, plus only the really nice ones will garner interest.
Really nice ones… again, that is subjective but clients tell me that they expect to see details like professional landscaping, a screened in porch, a stone patio, stone walls, pools or sport courts. Not a box on two acres.
Expectations run high and a 2006 kitchen may be a little too dated. Truth hurts!
Okay, let’s watch that upward trend in listings for sale and hopefully find you a nice new spot to call home.
