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There’s some fudge in those NAR home sales numbers

By Doug Francis

The NAR building and the U.S. Capitol in the b...
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REVISED

As I was driving over to my office today, I heard on WTOP exciting new statistics released by the National Association of Realtors about pending home sales jumping last month. Of course I like that news since I’m in the home-sale-biz, but I feel like there is a considerable amount of “fudge” in those numbers. I say “fudge” because the real estate market has been fueled by the deadline of the first time home buyer’s credit scheduled to expire December 1, 2009.

UPDATE: The President has just signed an extension but you need to be in a contract by May and settle before July 1, 2010.

That’s an $8,000 tax credit for anyone who hasn’t owned a home in the past three years as long as they meet certain criteria.

But last week as Congress tossed around the idea of extending it (they won’t) (they might) (they did), many bloggers decided to beat the story celebrating its continuance. I just Googled the story and read tons of comments where people were relieved that it was extended because they were involved in “short-sales” and the banks had not responded to their offers. The box-score for short-sale success is grim so most of these people will never get the home or the tax credit.

In real estate blogs there were fierce discussions over if it was right or wrong to extend the credit which sometimes blurred the fact that it wasn’t extended (yet) (they did 11/6/2009). Jay Thompson, known as The Phoenix Real Estate Guy, put out a post asking people to stop posting that it had been extended! But Google had already indexed some other guy’s post… and he had over 60 comments from relieved short-sale buyers, who are probably hopping mad right now.

My recent Northern Virginia real estate experience tells me…

So the NAR stats released today and my recent market experience tell me a few things about the economic future. Like the cash-for-clunkers program to sell cars, there is going to be an immediate drop off in home sales in December 2009 (now wait till spring 2010). Almost 80% of the short-sale buyers who have padded the “pending contract” stats will not close and end up continuing to rent. And the NAR will use the dramatic numbers to lobby Congress to reinstate the tax incentive next year.

Like I said, there’s a little “fudge” in the statistics.

Related articles by Zemanta
  • Home sales contracts rise for 8th straight month (money.cnn.com)
  • Can You Still Catch the Buyer’s Market? (movephilly.blogspot.com)

Filed Under: Blog Tagged With: $8000 tax credit, real estate, tax credit

About Doug Francis

A seasoned Realtor specializing in unique and new homes around Vienna, Virginia, Doug has seen consumer behavior, negotiations and communication styles change. At his original brokerage, he was the first agent to add an email address. Imagine! Outside real estate, he plays tennis, is a Washington Capitals fan, spends time with Skipper (his dog), and enjoys the restaurant scene in the DCA. He's a Boston University graduate who feels morning coffee is non-negotiable.

Vienna real estate agent Doug Francis

When we bought our house in Vienna, we were thinking about raising the kids, building an addition, and knowing the neighbors. Today, home buyers are attracted to Vienna because of the sense of community, walkability, and small town lifestyle.

So, what’s next after your 25 years? It’s a conversation many of my clients are having with me as they plan to move to the beach, travel, or get closer to grandkids. Helping them see their future, sell their current home, and move ahead with their updated plan has been an interesting new chapter.

My background: I am an active licensed agent in Virginia, have negotiated hundreds of sales contracts, work at TTR Sotheby’s International Realty in McLean, and still sell homes in all price ranges. I donate to the Town of Vienna tree replacement fund, participate in a neighborhood citizens association, and try my best to stay in shape.

Let’s discuss your moving plans: Email doug@dougfrancis.com or call me at (703) 304-6827 .  Cheers!

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About Doug Francis

I am a Realtor with TTR Sotheby's International Realty® just outside Washington D.C. in Northern Virginia. I'm licensed in Virginia with a focus on Vienna, VA real estate since 1991.

That deep knowledge is valuable, especially in today's fast-paced market where advice is critical. Although many of my clients are personally referred, I am available to help you too and am accepting new clients right now.

Feel free to contact me at 703-304-6827 or email me at doug@dougfrancis.com anytime!

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